Surging support for Reform UK is the big polling story this year, but to date they have barely registered in local elections. A big breakthrough here will boost their campaign for their top Westminster target seat, Bristol Central, where Green co-leader Carla Denyer is seeking to unseat Labour shadow cabinet member Thangam Debbonaire. The Greens have never been stronger in local government and will target Bristol, where they are already the largest party.

The locals are also a test for two smaller parties that have been gaining in the polls. Another Lib Dem advance in such areas will suggest a second front is opening up against the government in once true-blue home counties terrain.

The party will hope to take control in Wokingham, represented at Westminster by John Redwood, in west Oxfordshire, whose MP was once David Cameron and in Elmbridge, where Dominic Raab’s Westminster seat is a top target. The Liberal Democrats are looking for a third strong performance in a row to build a platform for Westminster success in the Tory-held blue wall seats they are targeting. Results in places such as Oldham, Burnley and Oxford will be watched closely for early signs of possible challenges to come on Labour’s left flank. The Gaza conflict has proved a lightning rod for discontent with Starmer’s leadership, with dozens of Labour councillors leaving the party over the issue. The opposition will also have an anxious eye on councils with large Muslim or young progressive populations. Labour will also look for gains in Harlow, Thurrock and Basildon for evidence that the tide is turning in the Thames Estuary, long one of England’s swingiest regions, and one which has become very blue since Brexit. Dudley provides another key test: all the seats are up in this Conservative-held council in a strongly pro-Brexit West Midlands battleground whose Westminster seats swung hard against Labour in 2019. Labour will dearly hope to recover Hartlepool, a red wall council where a Westminster byelection defeat in 2021 triggered the worst crisis of Starmer’s leadership, and to make solid gains in traditional swing areas, such as Bolton and Milton Keynes, which typically back the winner in general elections. There is plenty to watch out for in the patchwork quilt of council elections. Results in places such as Oldham, Burnley and Oxford will be watched closely for early signs of possible challenges to come on Labour’s left flank This is the Conservatives’ best chance to elect a new mayor, and an opportunity for Labour to give the prime minster a bloody nose in his own backyard. Two new mayoral elections will also be closely watched – the East Midlands combined authority covers a region thick with Westminster marginals, while York and North Yorkshire covers swathes of blue-leaning rural terrain, including Sunak’s constituency. A Conservative win would be a major upset, and a shot in the arm for the struggling Sunak government. The London race looks less interesting: while Sadiq Khan’s personal polling looks weak, the Labour lean of the capital and Labour mood of the country should see him through. Both have Conservative incumbents, and if either Ben Houchen or Andy Street can survive, it will be evidence that well-regarded Conservatives can still thrive in a harsh climate for their party. The mayoral races in Tees Valley and the West Midlands are the other headline contests to watch.

Red lightning fury